In August ICCCAD organized community consultations to discuss the four “roads” scenarios. The consultations were led by consultant, Sanjb Saha and took place in Kawnia, Rangpur and Shyamnagar, Satkhira. A broad cross-section of the community took part -- farmers and fishers, labourers, rickshaw pullers, carpenters, blacksmiths, cobblers, businessmen, unemployed youths, teachers, students, and others.
They began by listing the key challenges in their communities, which included decreasing income opportunities, river erosion and displacement, the credit and debt trap, lower wages for women doing the same jobs as men, price hikes and scarcity of drinking water. But, they noted significant trends that are resulting in big changes, particularly changes in the position of women via increased education opportunities for girls and more participation by “empowered and vocal” women in local government. These changes will continue, they felt, though less in the Rocky Road scenario.
They then discussed the credibility of each scenario and what would life be like if the country took that road? The conversations were wide-ranging and often overlapping, not sticking to the roads but taking them as starting points and going off them to discuss many issues. This may indicate the value of scenarios in opening up thinking and discussion.
People felt the Green Road offered most promise for farmers to get training and support, including by internet connectivity. But they were sceptical it would be possible to reduce inputs of chemical fertiliser and pesticides, given the drive to “produce more crop” or produce more shrimps. Agro-ecology also requires land for experiment, and farmers often lack access to productive land.
They felt the Middle Road -- the closest to current development pathways – would see more inequality, with the rich becoming richer and the poor poorer, and middle sectors of the rural population squeezed. Outmigration would continue and government efforts to retain people in villages were only “political jargon”. In the south, however, shrimp farms are providing work and reducing migration, but salinity is a big problem for farmers. Some of the biggest changes in rural livelihoods, especially the expansion of shrimp and crab farming, had come about because of the effects of super cyclone Aila in 2009 which increased coastal saline intrusion.
Given the trends that people identified above, and others, they felt it hard to distinguish between the Divided Road and the Rocky Road scenarios. Both were plausible, and they didn’t feel that life might be worse for poor people than now, in either future. But they felt there was great promise if digital technology and a national ID system came into operation and enabled them to obtain social security and agricultural advice and inputs in a rapid and fairway. People greatly appreciated the social safety net program but, complained that they sometimes had to bribe officials to obtain support at the moment. They also felt the Divided Road offered opportunities for renewable energy, both biogas and solar. But they anticipated even more migration to the cities if rich business people took over farming and brought in more mechanisation.
John Magrath is a writer who has worked for Oxfam GB for over 30 years in a variety of role. He specializes in climate change issues.