The government's income-expenditure calculus is becoming increasingly challenging.
On one hand, reliance on borrowing to meet budgetary expenses is rising, while on the other, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is lagging behind in revenue collection.
According to preliminary figures from the NBR, a massive deficit has emerged in meeting revenue targets during the first four months of the current fiscal year (July–October) of FY27.
During this period, the target for revenue collection was nearly Tk178,000 crore.
In contrast, actual collections amounted to less than Tk128,000 crore.
Consequently, the revenue shortfall compared to the target has exceeded Tk50,000 crore.
Earlier, in the first three months of FY27 (July–September), the revenue shortfall stood at approximately Tk43,000 crore.
With the deficit expanding further to cross Tk50,000 crore in the subsequent month, fresh concerns have surfaced regarding the achievement of the government's overall revenue targets.
NBR officials attribute the sluggish revenue growth to a lack of anticipated momentum in economic activity, overly ambitious target setting, and certain policy bottlenecks.
However, despite the widening deficit, collections have increased compared to the same period of the previous FY26.
Yet, this growth rate remains below 6%, whereas revenue growth during the first four months of the last fiscal year exceeded 16%.
According to NBR data, among the three primary revenue sectors, Value Added Tax (VAT) collection is in the worst shape.
During the first four months of the current fiscal year, while income tax and import-level duty collections saw a growth of about 14%, VAT collection registered zero growth.
In fact, collections in this sector declined by nearly 6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.
Sources indicate that the government set a revenue collection target of Tk604,000 crore in the budget for the current fiscal year—marking an ambitious 45% jump over actual collections from the previous year.
Never before in the country's history has such a massive increase been targeted in a single fiscal year.
In FY26, revenue collection had grown by 12%, while historical averages hover around 15%.
Consequently, experts and stakeholders had questioned the attainability of the current FY27 targets right from the time of budget announcement.