Strong external sector performance, driven by a historical surge in remittances and robust financial account inflows, enabled Bangladesh to achieve a record Balance of Payments (BoP) overall surplus of $6.61 billion in FY26.
However, domestic business activity remained subdued due to high inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and structural constraints, according to the latest report released by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce & Industry (MCCI), Dhaka.
The report highlights that provisional real GDP growth ticked up to 4.14% in FY26, up from 3.49% in FY25.
Total GDP in current US Dollar terms expanded by 9.77% to cross half a trillion dollars at $501.07 billion.
Per capita GDP rose to $2,866, while per capita GNI reached $3,020.
The balance of payments surplus jumped by 94.69% year-on-year from $3.39 billion in FY25.
This dramatic gain occurred despite the current account deficit widening to $1.59 billion (from $138 million in FY25) as the trade deficit expanded by 33.76% to $27.29 billion.
A soaring financial account surplus—reaching $7.89 billion due to loans and multilateral financing—bridged the trade gap.
A record remittance inflow of $35.59 billion—a 17.34% spike over FY25's $30.33 billion—served as the vital cushion for the economy.
Saudi Arabia was the largest sender ($5.86 billion), followed by the UK ($5.08 billion) and the UAE ($4.59 billion).
Supported by worker remittances and central bank market intervention, gross foreign exchange reserves (BPM6) strengthened to $32.93 billion by June 2026, compared to $26.74 billion a year prior.
Trade and domestic industry under strain
Despite the macroeconomic buffer from overseas, Bangladesh's real economy experienced deceleration across multiple sectors:
- Export Growth Flattens: Total merchandise export earnings rose marginally by 0.17% to $48.38 billion, missing the government’s target of $55 billion by 12.04% due to weak global demand and energy costs. Readymade garment (RMG) exports slipped by 0.96% to $38.97 billion, though engineering products (+29.30%), jute goods (+8.93%), and leather products (+7.98%) posted growth.
- Industrial Cooling: The broader industry sector grew by 2.86%, down from 3.71% in FY25. Manufacturing slowed to 3.31% (compared to 5.83% in FY25) as private enterprises exercised caution amid tight liquidity, high interest rates, and policy uncertainty. Large industry growth dropped steeply to 1.97%.
- Investment and Credit Contraction: Gross investment fell to 27.93% of GDP from 28.54%. Private investment slid to 21.53%. Correspondingly, private sector credit growth sank to a record low of 4.47%, missing Bangladesh Bank's 8.50% projection, whereas public sector credit expanded by 30.43%. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows declined 15.02% to $1.47 billion.
Fiscal shortfalls and inflationary pressures
The fiscal landscape faced continuing headwinds. The National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Tk415,473 crore, missing its revised target by 17.40% (Tk87,527 crore).
Disrupted supply chains, stagnation in trade, and developmental delays following the July 2024 uprising contributed to the gap, although collection grew 12.03% year-on-year.
Development spending stalled, with agencies utilizing only 67.52% of the revised Annual Development Program (ADP) budget.
Headline inflation showed late relief, easing to 9.16% in June 2026 due to improved food supply chains, compared to 9.42% in May.
However, average annual general inflation remained elevated at 8.68%.
Looking ahead to FY27, the government has set a national budget outlay of Tk938,000 crore, aiming for a 6.50% GDP growth rate and targeting an inflation reduction to 7.5%.
MCCI stressed that sustaining price stability, fixing banking sector bottlenecks, and easing infrastructure constraints will be critical to converting external balance recovery into broad-based domestic growth.