There was a strong expectation among businessmen, entrepreneurs, and ordinary citizens that the country's economy would stabilize quickly.
However, due to long-standing irregularities in the banking sector, the burden of non-performing loans (NPLs), flat private investments, and high inflation, that expectation has not yet turned into reality.
Instead, the ongoing economic slowdown is now showing a direct negative impact on the Eid-ul-Azha cattle markets.
Although there is a high supply of livestock in the capital's cattle markets, buyer attendance remains unusually low. Consumer interest in large cattle has dropped significantly.
Many individuals who previously bought a whole cow on their own are now choosing to share sacrificial costs through joint partnerships (bhagee).
At the same time, a section of limited-income families is thinking of skipping the ritual entirely this year. As a result, analysts worry that the vast Eid-centric economy will face a notable slowdown.
According to data from the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, 12.3 million sacrificial animals have been prepared across the country this season. In contrast, the potential national demand is estimated at around 10.1 million animals, leaving a surplus of nearly 2.2 million animals.
However, looking at current market trends, several economists believe that actual consumer demand might turn out to be even lower than official government estimates.
Last year, under similar economic strain, the number of sacrificial animals dropped to 9.1 million. This was a sharp decline from 2024, when over 10.4 million animals were sold, generating a market value of roughly Tk69,000 crore. This drop of 1.3 million animals in a single year caused the total market size to shrink to around Tk50,000 to Tk55,000 crore.
Macroeconomists point to high inflation and falling purchasing power as the main reasons for this decline.
Data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) shows that headline inflation stood at 9.04% in April 2026. Driven by the high cost of everyday essentials, middle-class and fixed-income families are cutting down on non-essential expenses, which directly impacts festival spending.
Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam Khan explained: "People's financial health is not in good shape. Those who used to buy large cows are now looking for medium-sized ones. Those who used to buy small cows are either opting for shared sacrifices or switching to smaller animals like goats and sheep."
Farmers are also under immense pressure. The prices of animal feed, medicines, and truck transport have gone up significantly, while buyers in the market are limited. Consequently, many may be forced to sell their livestock with very little profit or even at a loss, he added.
Sluggish demand hits large cattle segment
Visits to various cattle markets in Dhaka showed that while there is some demand for small and medium-sized cows, the market for large cattle is almost stagnant.
Furthermore, the prices of smaller cows have risen by Tk10,000 to Tk15,000 compared to last year.
A small cow that sold for Tk80,000 to Tk1 lakh last season is now being priced between Tk90,000 and Tk1.10 lakh.
Jamal Uddin, a farmer from Jamalpur who brought seven cows to the Shahjahanpur market, shared that buyers are unwilling to bid realistically on large animals.
For a 600 kg cow, his asking price is Tk5 lakh, but the highest offer he has received is Tk3.5 lakh.
Meanwhile, his truck transport fare increased by Tk5,000 to Tk10,000 this year.
Mobarak Ali, a trader from Chapainawabganj at the Amulia market, reported selling only six small cows over several days, noting that buyers for large and medium animals are rare.
Rabiul, a farmer from Meherpur, noted that transporting 15 cows to Dhaka cost him Tk40,000 in truck rent—Tk10,000 more than last year.
The total value of Bangladesh's Eid-ul-Azha economy is estimated to be over Tk1 lakh crore.
This seasonal economic engine extends far beyond the sale of livestock; it directly drives consumer electronics, spices, transport, the leather industry, clothing brands, and local small businesses.
Analysts warn that a weak cattle market slows down the entire economic cycle.
Impact on consumer goods and retail
- Refrigerators: Out of 3 million lakh refrigerators sold annually in Bangladesh, nearly 1.2 million units (40%) are traditionally purchased during this Eid season for meat preservation. Despite special corporate discounts, electronics retailers report that sales are lower than expected.
- Spices and Groceries: The demand for spices—such as cumin, cardamom, cinnamon, ginger, and garlic—surges during this period. Traders note that transactions for spices and holiday clothing alone account for nearly Tk5,000 crore.
- Beverages and Dairy: The local sweet and yogurt market, valued at over Tk20,000 crore annually, usually sees a massive sales spike during Eid, alongside a 30% increase in soft drink consumption. However, retail volumes have softened this year.
- Malls: Dhaka's major shopping hubs are seeing thin crowds despite brand discounts of up to 50%. Economists note that households are prioritizing essential living expenses over lifestyle shopping due to high grocery bills.
Despite these urban pressures, the single biggest positive aspect of Eid-ul-Azha is the large-scale transfer of cash from urban centers to rural communities.
Mustafa K Mujeri, former chief economist of Bangladesh Bank, explained: "During this Eid, a massive volume of capital moves from cities to villages. The money spent on cattle goes directly into the hands of rural livestock farmers and smallholders, giving a major boost to the rural economy."
For thousands of marginal farmers who rear one or two cows throughout the year specifically for this holiday market, this seasonal income serves as their primary financial support.
Additionally, the festival creates temporary employment for thousands of truck drivers, market workers, butchers, and feed traders.
A sharp increase in inbound remittances ahead of the festival has provided a timely cushion for rural consumption. Migrant workers are sending extra funds home to help their families cover holiday expenses.
The leather industry remains the largest underutilized segment of the Eid economy.
While a major portion of the country's annual rawhide supply is collected during Eid, the sector struggles due to a lack of modern supply chains, poor preservation infrastructure, and compliance issues.
National leather export revenues, which once crossed $1 billion, have dropped to between $800 million and $900 million.
This season, tannery owners are facing a major liquidity crisis.
Out of approximately Tk16,000 crore in total loans distributed to the leather sector, Tk2,000 crore (12.50%) has turned into non-performing loans (NPLs). Additionally, commercial banks have written off roughly Tk800 crore in bad debts.
Because of these high default rates, commercial banks are unwilling to clear fresh working capital for raw hide purchases.
To ease this crunch, the central bank relaxed several rules, giving regular borrowers until June 30 to clear partial installments and allowing defaulted entrepreneurs to reschedule their loans with a 2% down payment. However, most traders failed to raise the required down payment.
Consequently, against a seasonal credit target of Tk228.50 crore set for the leather sector this year, actual disbursements remained minimal up to the final banking days before Eid.
For comparison, out of a Tk644.50 crore target last year, only Tk65 crore was actually disbursed, with a large part later turning into bad debt. Industry insiders worry that this lack of cash will negatively impact the collection and preservation of raw hides over the holiday.