The country's economy is now at a critical juncture. On one hand, there is high inflation, fiscal deficit, debt pressure and weak investment situation; on the other hand, there is the pressure to implement the political promises of the new government.
Keeping in mind the question of how the national budget for FY27 is going to be in such a reality, the pre-budget dialogue of the Citizen’s Platform for SDGs—a discussion titled “National Budget 2026-27: Political Promises and Citizen Expectations” was held in the capital.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional research director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), presented the keynote speech in the discussion.
The article provided a detailed analysis of Bangladesh's long-standing structural weaknesses in budget management, revenue collection constraints, subsidy pressures, debt risks, the spread of tax exemptions, and the fiscal capacity to implement political commitments.
The discussion revealed that the government is going to set a revenue target of about Tk695,000 crore for FY27, which will require growth of at least 42%. But it is feared that the revenue deficit could reach about Tk100,000 crore in the current fiscal itself.
The research paper says that Bangladesh's tax-GDP ratio has now come down to just 6.8%, which is lower than many South Asian countries. At the same time, the amount of revenue the government is losing through tax exemptions and tax concessions is almost equal to the revenue collected.
Analysts say that if the government does not reform tax exemptions, neither increasing development spending nor expanding social protection programs will be sustainable.
The dialogue also raised concerns about increasing subsidy pressure in the food, electricity, LNG, agriculture and remittance sectors.
Researchers believe that the government's subsidy expenditure may increase significantly in the next fiscal year as the prices of energy and food products increase in the global market.
The government may have to face major financial pressure, especially in the electricity and LNG sectors. At the same time, it was felt that additional funds would be needed even if agricultural subsidies and cash incentives for expatriate income were continued.
Concerns were also expressed in the discussion about the implementation of the recommendations of the Ninth Pay Commission. The study mentioned that an additional Tk106.000 crore may be required to fully implement the proposed new salary structure.
The researchers said that although increasing the salaries of government officials and employees is a politically popular decision, implementing it may create pressure on the development budget, subsidies or social security sectors.
As part of the new government's election promises, plans to introduce 'Family Card', 'Farmers Card', mid-day meal, free uniforms for students, free Wi-Fi in educational institutions and multimedia classrooms were discussed in detail.
The study shows that although the aim of these programs is people-friendly, there are various limitations in their implementation at the field level. Participants raised questions about beneficiary selection, data verification, complaint resolution, technical capacity and the risk of corruption.
In particular, it was recommended to strengthen data-based verification, digital security and complaint management in the Family Card program. On the other hand, emphasis was placed on increasing transparency and accountability at the local level in the Farmers Card project.
The article also warned about Bangladesh's debt situation. The IMF has already identified Bangladesh as a “medium-risk debt-ridden country.”
Experts say that the government is gradually becoming more dependent on bank loans. This may reduce credit flow to the private sector and increase inflationary pressure.
In the final part of the discussion, the researchers said that the budget for FY27 will be one of the biggest tests for the new government. The government will have to balance economic reforms, IMF conditions, revenue growth, debt control and political commitments at the same time.
The study warns that this budget is not just a calculation of numbers; it will also be a test of the government's financial capacity, political will and administrative skills. Ultimately, the success of the budget will depend on how efficiently the government can increase revenue, control expenditure and implement realistic reforms, they added.