According to the Bangladesh Jewellers Association (Bajus), on Thursday the price of 22-carat gold was Tk286,001 per bhori, which was the highest recorded gold price in the country’s history.
But by Thursday morning, the price of gold dropped by Tk30,385 per bhori, a massive drop in a span of only two days.
Under the revised rates, the price of 22-carat hallmarked gold has been fixed at Tk255,616 per bhori (11.664 grams).
Successive record prices in Bangladesh’s gold market have renewed a pressing public question—will the price of gold per bhori soon cross Tk3 lakh?
After the international gold price surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history, the domestic market has begun reflecting the same upward trend.
Experts say that, given the current global economic and political context, reaching Tk300,000 per bhori is no longer an unrealistic scenario.
However, the speed and timing of such a rise will depend on developments in the international gold market, the US dollar exchange rate, and broader global uncertainty.
Market insiders note that domestic gold prices have reached this level due to the combined impact of international gold rates, dollar exchange fluctuations, local refined gold prices, import costs, taxation, and market management expenses.
From global pricing to the local market
Gold prices in international markets are determined in US dollars per ounce. On January 26, when global prices hovered near $5,000 per ounce, the equivalent value in Bangladeshi Taka exceeded Tk550,000 per ounce (assuming an average exchange rate of Tk110 per dollar).
One ounce equals 31.1035 grams, while one bhori in Bangladesh equals 11.664 grams. Based on this conversion, the base international value per bhori stands at roughly Tk206,000–Tk208,000.
To this are added local refined gold costs, import expenses and risk premiums, VAT and other charges, and market operational and storage costs.
Data indicate that in August 2024, the price of 22-carat gold in Bangladesh was approximately Tk120,000 per bhori.
Within 18 months, the price has increased by about Tk140,000, meaning it has more than doubled over this period.
A significant portion of this increase has been driven by persistent rises in international gold prices, along with high dollar exchange rates and rising import costs.
Why prices continue to rise
Analysts say the underlying factors pushing gold prices upward—geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainty, interest rate uncertainty, and demand for safe-haven assets—have not subsided.
According to Bangladesh Bank, continued pressure in the foreign exchange market has kept import-dependent commodities, including gold, on an upward trajectory. This has begun affecting retail demand and the wedding season market.
Economists and market analysts identify three main drivers behind the rapid surge in gold prices.
First, global geopolitical instability. Conflicts in the Middle East, security concerns in Europe, political uncertainty in the United States, and tensions among major global powers are pushing investors away from risky assets toward safer investments.
Second, expectations of lower interest rates. Major economies, including the United States, have signaled a possible shift toward looser monetary policy. When interest rates fall, returns on bonds, savings instruments, and bank deposits decline, increasing the attractiveness of gold as an alternative investment.
Third, weakness in the US dollar. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for investors using other currencies, boosting global demand. Recent declines in the dollar against the yen and euro have further intensified buying pressure in gold markets.
In addition, large-scale gold purchases by central banks are influencing prices. China has been buying gold continuously for 14 months, while record investment inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are pushing prices higher.
Domestic price pressure
Rising international gold prices have a direct impact on Bangladesh’s domestic market.
Bajus adjusts local prices based on international refined gold rates and currency exchange movements.
Analysts warn that if global gold prices remain above $5,000 per ounce or rise further, domestic prices will likely face additional upward pressure.
Dewan Aminul Islam Shaheen, chairman of Bajus’s standing committee on pricing and price monitoring, said that if geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Middle East persist, gold prices in Bangladesh could cross Tk300,000 per bhori within a short period.
He told Dhaka Tribune that ongoing tensions between the United States, Venezuela, and Iran are driving international gold prices upward. As global uncertainty rises, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven, directly influencing price movements.
Shaheen also noted that abnormally high prices have sharply reduced domestic gold sales, estimating that current sales have fallen to around 10% of normal levels.
Zahid Hussain, former chief economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka Office, said that rising inflation weakens real purchasing power, prompting investors to avoid riskier sectors and move toward gold, thereby increasing price pressure.
He added that geopolitical uncertainty—such as US–Iran tensions or the Venezuela crisis—can rapidly raise global demand for gold.
He further explained that gold prices tend to rise when interest rates fall, since lower returns on traditional financial instruments make gold more attractive. These global dynamics eventually feed into Bangladesh’s domestic market.
The sharp rise in gold prices is placing the heaviest burden on middle- and lower-income households. Jewellers fear declining gold usage at weddings and social events, as families reduce jewelry weight or postpone purchases altogether.
Small businesses, artisans, and the broader jewelry industry are also experiencing a downturn.
The slowdown extends beyond Dhaka—remote regions across the country are facing a severe slump in gold sales. Due to high prices, buyers have declined significantly, and the tradition of gifting gold at weddings and celebrations is fading.
Producing quality jewelry within Tk2,000–Tk10,000 is no longer feasible.
Abdul Qader, a gold trader from Pabna, told Dhaka Tribune that gold prices could reach Tk300,000 per bhori within three months if current trends continue. He reported that gold sales have fallen by 40%–50% over the past year, with many customers choosing to remake old jewelry instead of purchasing new items.
Another trader, Amit Ghosh, said that gold sales typically rise when overall economic activity improves, but the current market slowdown is directly affecting gold businesses.
Analysts argue that a rapid rise in gold prices serves as a warning signal for the global economy.
Historically, gold rallies during periods of inflation, financial volatility, and political risk, indicating that global economic stability remains fragile.
According to the World Gold Council, gold prices rose more than 64% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979.