Usually, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) publishes export data from the previous month within the first three days of the current month.
However, as of July 9, the data for June for the financial year 2023-24 has not yet been released.
This delay also affects the provisional data on overall export performance for the entire financial year, leaving the merchandise export earnings for FY24 unknown.
According to EPB officials, the discrepancy between the export data from the EPB and Bangladesh Bank is prompting a re-evaluation of the data.
On Monday, July 8, officials from the EPB, National Board of Revenue (NBR), Bangladesh Bank (BB), Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission (BTTC), and Bangladesh Foreign Trade Institute (BFTI) held a meeting to discuss the revised data publication.
They assured that updated data would be posted soon, possibly next week, following directives from the Ministry of Commerce.
Major discrepancy uncovered
This meeting followed a significant revelation by the central bank on July 3, which some analysts have called one of the biggest shocks in the country's recent financial history.
The central bank's Balance of Payment data for July-April of FY24 showed export earnings at $33.67 billion, a 6.8% decline from $36.14 billion in the same period of FY23. In contrast, EPB data for the same period reported merchandise export earnings of $47.47 billion, a 3.93% increase from $45.68 billion, highlighting a $13.8 billion discrepancy.
When is EPB data likely to be published?
A senior EPB official, speaking anonymously, explained that the EPB merely compiles data from the NBR.
The gap in export data could be due to double or triple counting and issues with the NBR's data storage software.
Efforts are being made to review and correct these discrepancies before releasing the data.
Another senior EPB official mentioned that the discrepancy was detected using the BPM-6 method prescribed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Following this discovery, the EPB, BB, NBR, IMF, Finance Ministry, and Commerce Ministry agreed to use the BPM-6 method for export data to resolve these issues.
Authorities have taken corrective actions and plan to release the revised export data soon.
A meeting on July 8 aimed to fix the mismatches and agree on a timeline for publication. The export data will be released once the state minister for commerce and the EPB vice chairman approve it, which could be this week or next week.
Disparities in data collection methodologies between the NBR, BB, and BBS have caused variations in published data.
The mismatch was unintentional, and efforts are being made to correct and update the previous export data in cooperation with relevant organizations.
Authorities to address SOP
Monday's meeting concluded with a consensus to address Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) to eliminate data errors and ensure accuracy.
Within the next three months, export earnings will be calculated based on the value of money in the Bangladesh Bank account, with a consistent USD conversion rate across all institutions.
New software complying with the SOP will be introduced to publish export information through data analysis.
Earlier, on Sunday, Prime Minister’s Adviser on Private Industry and Investment Salman F Rahman said at a roundtable that the lack of coordination among the government's three agencies (EPB, BB, NBR) was behind the discrepancy in the export data.
However, the issue was resolved finally and there will be no more confusion about export information in the future, he hoped to say that the EPB collects export data through multiple processes, and in some cases, there might be mistakes or incoherence.
He also said that as there is a solution to this, there will be no more such confusion in the future, and the government agencies will work in coordination.
Industry insiders expressed concerns over the inflated export figures, which have cast doubt on the country's economic indices.
They questioned the actions taken by policymakers during crucial economic periods based on inaccurate information. The mismatched export data concealed the real situation of the industry, ultimately hindering its progress.