The Kashmir story repeats itself every few decades. When I listened to the speech of Indian Interior Minister Amit Shah in the parliament in which he tried to explain why they decided to repeal Article 370, 35A and bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir, it sounded like hearing the same old story.
The Kashmiri leader Sheikh Abdullah had played a pivotal role in bringing Jammu and Kashmir with India as a lone majority Muslim state, with the belief and understanding that a multi-religious state such as Jammu and Kashmir would be safe in a secular and democratic India rather than a religious and feudal Pakistan.
Perhaps his illusion for democracy had soon shattered when he had been removed undemocratically and unconstitutionally from the premiership and sent behind bars almost for the rest of his life, barring his last lone stint in the office before his death.
The seeds of mistrust and political discontentment in the valley had been sown with the removal of Sheikh from the power and unleashing of proxy politics to ensure that the “will” of New Delhi must prevail over the “will” of people of Jammu and Kashmir that eroded public trust from participatory politics.
Interestingly, then Indian Congress government had similar views and charge sheet against Sheikh Abdullah like the present government laid against the three Kashmiri leaders.
Then Congress government had thought that removing Sheikh and funneling funds through their proxy leaders would make him politically irrelevant and allow an incremental integration of Jammu and Kashmir into Union India.
The Indian government had also accused Sheikh of conspiring with Pakistan under false charges and was made to spend 22 years in jail with this belief that Kashmiris would abandon him politically.
After 22 years, the Indian government realized that, in spite of economic packages and long incarcerations, Sheikh was politically more relevant than ever.
Also, after the death of Sheikh, the government tried to undermine Farooq Abdullah’s government, again with their proxy politics, that eventually manifested into militancy and ongoing political uprising.
Now BJP government has replayed a similar trailer a half-century later and came up with a new political recipe on Jammu and Kashmir on August 5 by abolishing its special status, decimating the statehood of Jammu and Kashmir.
By arresting all political leaders and locking down the entire Valley, it sought to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir problem for good.
The new political prescription of the BJP government to treat Jammu and Kashmir is not much different to the one its predecessor government had used in 1953.
The only difference is that then Congress had adopted an incremental approach of integration of Jammu and Kashmir.
What BJP government needs to do now is replace the three Kashmiri leaders -- which Amit Shah called three dynasties and are, according to BJP narrative, part of the problem -- with new proxy politicians like Congress had done in 1953.
Propaganda to discredit these three pro-Indian Kashmiri political leaders is already underway.
And interestingly, this propaganda is carried out along the Pakistani establishment’s lines, that these leaders minted money and were corrupt and disloyal to India.
The proxy politicians must also be in the process of waiting to be presented when conditions permit.
According to the BJP, terrorism, separatism, and Pakistan interference will go away once the old pro-Indian dynasties will be either behind bars or politically sidelined because all these problems were linked with underdevelopment -- the result of these three corrupt political dynasties.
The question arising is why Congress couldn’t do what BJP did now.
The answer is simple: India was fairly new as an independent dominion and faced a host of constraints, geopolitically, economically, and militarily. Compare that to BJP that is enjoying favourable position on these fronts.
Kashmir was also a fairly fresh issue and, due to Cold War politics, Pakistan was enjoying support from the West and India had no substantial economic or military superiority over Pakistan at the time.
In contrast, India today is not only enjoying geopolitical advantages, but also considerable economic and military superiority over Pakistan.
Whereas today Pakistan is not only facing a host of above-mentioned challenges but these challenges are compounded by the internal political polarization, which has helped the BJP government implement its long-awaited political agenda.
As a result, we see Pakistan’s weakest response in the past 72 years on Kashmir but the diplomatic disaster Pakistan is facing on Kashmir is also unprecedented.
The first diplomatic blow came from the UAE government which called it an internal issue of India.
However, the situation is disappointing but not completely hopeless and Pakistan’s abdication to the Kashmiris can turn into a blessing too.
Because, until now, the Kashmiri struggle has been seen as pro-Pakistan and an Islamic struggle and carries this baggage with it.
If Kashmiris rise and India uses excessive force to crush the uprising, it can shift world opinion against India, which may be Pakistan’s best option.
Mumtaz Khan, born in Pakistan, lives in exile in Toronto, Canada and is a social justice activist campaigning for United Kashmir.
