As the first major fiscal blueprint under the administration of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the budget for FY27 is slated to reach approximately Tk938,000 crore.
If finalized, Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury will present the spending plan to the national parliament on June 11.
State planners maintain that this budget will lay the foundation for economic recovery, expanded social protection, and long-term GDP growth.
However, a large cross-section of macroeconomists, business leaders, and tax experts question whether the government has the institutional capacity to implement an expenditure plan of this magnitude under current economic realities.
During the current FY26, the government has fallen significantly short of its revenue goals, with the revenue deficit breaching the Tk100,000 crore mark.
To fund public administrative costs, the state has borrowed heavily from the commercial banking sector.
In this context, skepticism is growing over the viability of an even larger spending layout paired with historically high revenue targets.
Statutory documents indicate that while the government plans to take on massive amounts of fresh credit over the upcoming year, the financial burden of servicing existing external debts will simultaneously escalate to critical levels.
The government has scheduled approximately Tk46,000 crore to cover principal and interest payments on external loans during FY27.
Economists point out that heavy investments in mega-infrastructure projects over the last decade have rapidly driven up the country's foreign debt liabilities. Bangladesh is now entering a demanding phase of debt amortization.
Financial analysts warn that debt service costs will place a severe strain on liquid budget management.
Over the medium term, these external servicing obligations are projected to rise further, placing additional pressure on macro stability.
The government has set a target to contain consumer inflation within a 7.5% ceiling for the upcoming fiscal year. However, independent economists believe this target will be difficult to hit.
Fluctuating international energy prices, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and volatile global supply chains continue to drive up domestic production costs.
Locally, these pressures are compounded by recent domestic fuel price adjustments, alongside an ongoing process to raise electricity tariffs.
Fresh pressures from utility price adjustments
The draft budget outlines a phased strategy to continue adjusting oil, gas, and electricity prices throughout the next financial year.
Macroeconomists warn that these utility adjustments will inevitably push up raw manufacturing costs and transport overheads, feeding directly into the retail prices of consumer goods and services.
Analysts see a particularly high risk for essential food commodities. Consequently, low- and middle-income households are likely to face an escalating cost-of-living burden over the coming months.
Faced with the twin pressures of rising debt service obligations and inflation risks driven by utility adjustments, analysts anticipate fresh structural strain across the macroeconomy in the next fiscal year.
Without strict policy coordination and disciplined expenditure management, the core targets of the national budget will remain out of reach.
Official dockets show that the proposed Tk938,000 crore budget for FY27 represents a significant expansion over the FY26 layout, which stood at Tk790,000 crore.
This marks a year-on-year increase of Tk148,000 crore—an expansion of nearly 19%.
Economists note that while public spending layouts are traditionally expanded to stimulate commercial activity, absorb inflation, fund development projects, and scale up social safety nets, executing a massive budget during a phase of weak revenue collection and below-target GDP growth presents a severe structural challenge.
To back this historic layout, the government has fixed its total revenue collection target at an unprecedented Tk695,000 crore.
The mobilization strategy splits this target across three core collection areas:
- NBR Direct & Indirect Taxes: Budgeted to generate Tk6,04,000 crore.
- Non-NBR Tax Sources: Slated to bring in Tk25,000 crore.
- Non-Tax Revenue (NTR) Streams: Projected to contribute Tk66,000 crore.
While this represents the highest revenue target in the history of the country, actual collections tell a more complicated story.
The NBR has consistently missed its statutory collection targets over recent cycles. Slowing commercial activity, compressed import lines, cooling industrial output, and limited progress in expanding the active taxpayer base have collectively kept revenues below target.
Analysts warn that if the NBR fails to meet these new revenue targets, the government will be forced to rely even more heavily on deficit financing.
The proposed fiscal blueprint carries an overall deficit of Tk243,000 crore, marking one of the largest structural budget deficits in the nation's history.
Financial planners intend to bridge this multi-billion Taka funding gap by tapping a mix of domestic and international credit networks.
Financial analysts warn that aggressive borrowing from domestic commercial banks risks crowding out private sector credit lines, which could harm private industrial investment and slow down job creation.
At the same time, heavy reliance on foreign loans will lock in steeper sovereign debt-servicing obligations for future fiscal years.
The government has set its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target at 6.5% for the upcoming fiscal, up from the 5.5% target set for the current FY26.
Analysts suggest that sluggish retail trade, cooling private manufacturing investments, high commercial lending rates, and broader global economic uncertainties could make achieving this 6.5% growth target difficult.
A notable policy addition to the upcoming budget is the formal introduction of the "Creative Economy" development framework.
The government aims to cultivate alternative growth sectors by supporting information technology, freelance networks, tech startups, digital innovations, cultural industries, filmmaking, musical production, sports infrastructure, and rural heritage crafts.
To build this ecosystem, the draft budget includes provisions for dedicated venture capital funds, targeted tax incentives, and operational grants for young innovators.
The administration has articulated a long-term strategy to expand Bangladesh into a $1 trillion economy by 2034.
To achieve this milestone, macro policies are prioritizing high-yield GDP growth, inflation management, employment generation, financial sector reforms, increased agricultural output, long-term food security, and an investment-friendly business environment.
